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Bitcoin, which set a new all-time high last month when it rose past $41,000, had investors briefly worried when it plunged below $31,000 on profit-taking. Thankfully, the price correction was short-lived as BTC rose and broke last month’s record once more.
While the crypto market is currently in the midst of the rally with Bitcoin trading at $47,044 at the time of writing based on data from Coinmarketcap, one of the questions at the back of the minds of most investors is how long this rally might last. One crypto expert believes that the current bull cycle could last for as long as 22 months with Bitcoin going as high as $400,000.
“Time-wise, my guess is we have 9-22 months,” Ari Paul, chief information officer at BlockTower Capital, tweeted on February 5. “Price-wise - my guess is BTC ends the bull run between $100k-$400k and alts do better.”
The CIO said a day earlier that the industry is currently in the “7th inning of the crypto bull market,” according to Cointelegraph. He also predicted the rise of Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), and other cryptos but also warned that price corrections can still happen along the way.
“This is where we get ongoing, dizzying rotation,” Ari Paul said. “BTC up, then when BTC takes a breather, ETH and some largecaps (and in this regime, defi bluechips), then smallcaps, rinse and repeat. Of course, throw in some 30-60% retracements for fun.”
Indeed, ETH’s price rose relentlessly these past few days and set a new record when it traded at $$1,811 today. At the time of writing, the crypto slid back down slightly and is trading at $1,777 based on Coinmarketcap data.
Paul later realized that his baseball analogy (7th inning reference) has caused some confusion especially since the bull market timing of the relatively new crypto market is still subject to debate. “My baseball analogy is causing some confusion since there's no consensus on how to categorize phases of a bull market or even where it starts,” he said.
Ari Paul then explained how he views the currency crypto market bull cycle saying that ”2019 to mid-2020 was the first 40% of the bull cycle (measured off the lows).” This is followed by the period characterized by the marked increase in institutional interest which saw large firms buying BTC. “Q3 2020 through early January 2021 was the next 25% of the bull run, call it innings 4-6 roughly,” he added.
Based on Paul’s explanation, the market is now currently on the bull run’s 7th inning. “As long as BTC is consolidating, I expect alts to continue doing reasonably well,” the CIO said. “At some point, BTC will start another parabolic move higher and it'll likely outperform alts on the move. That move will trigger the next surge in new money.”
