# Shell's Third-Quarter Refining Margin Outlook Rises 75% to $42

By John Kim

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/business/27390
Published: 2026-10-07T11:37:34.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-07T11:37:34.000Z
Section: Business

> The indicative margin outlook improves despite lower expected refinery utilization and weaker chemicals margins. Shell plans to report third-quarter results Oct. 29.

Shell expects its indicative refining margin to rise to $42 per barrel in the third quarter, up 75% from $24 in the second quarter, signaling stronger refining economics despite lower expected refinery utilization.

The margin measures market-based gross profitability from converting crude oil into refined products. It excludes trading margin and is not a finalized earnings figure.

Shell forecasts refinery utilization of 93% to 97%, down from 102% in the second quarter. Low Rhine water levels are expected to affect utilization at the company's Rheinland refinery.

The chemicals margin is projected to decline to $208 per tonne from $270 per tonne. Trading and optimization performance in Shell's Chemicals and Products division is expected to remain in line with the second quarter.

Integrated Gas production is expected to reach 740,000 to 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared with 631,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the second quarter. The outlook includes the ARC Resources acquisition, completed Sept. 2, 2026.

Shell cautioned that actual third-quarter results may differ from the outlook. The update was published Oct. 7 at 2 a.m. ET (6 a.m. UTC), and third-quarter results are scheduled for Oct. 29.