# OpenAI Revenue Estimate Falls Short as Firmus Drops IPO Plans

By John Kim

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/business/29081
Published: 2026-10-09T14:43:12.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-09T14:43:12.000Z
Section: Business

> OpenAI’s annualized revenue reached approximately $50 billion at the end of September, while Firmus withdrew its Australian listing application after citing market conditions.

OpenAI’s annualized revenue was approximately $50 billion at the end of September, while Firmus withdrew its Australian listing application, sharpening scrutiny of AI valuations and infrastructure funding.

The OpenAI figure is a run-rate calculation that projects recent sales over a full year, not audited annual revenue. It was about $20 billion below a widely circulated $70 billion estimate. OpenAI records only its share of some cloud-partner transactions, while Anthropic records the full customer payment and treats the cloud provider’s share as an expense.

Firmus withdrew its application to list on the Australian Securities Exchange on Oct. 9. The announcement was issued at 11:43 p.m. ET Oct. 8 (03:43 UTC Oct. 9), with the company citing recent market volatility and prevailing market conditions.

Firmus had marketed shares at A$11 each, implying a valuation of about A$43.7 billion, or approximately US$30 billion. It had sought to raise as much as US$5.5 billion.

The company said it will pursue capital from private markets and consider alternative public and private-market options.

Credit-default swap activity also increased around major AI infrastructure companies. Nvidia’s single-name trading volume rose from approximately $640 million during September 2025-March 2026 to $6.9 billion in the following six-month period. Broadcom’s volume increased from about $1.5 billion to $8.2 billion over the same periods.

Credit-default swaps are contracts used to hedge or trade credit risk. Higher trading volume alone does not establish that default risk has increased.

The most actively traded names expected in a new investment-grade credit-default swap index include Oracle, Amazon, Alphabet, Broadcom, Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia. The developments leave AI revenue measurement, company valuations and infrastructure financing under closer scrutiny, but do not establish that the broader AI market is collapsing.