# American Airlines Bases Q3 Fuel Assumption on July Forward Curve

By John Kim

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/business/33766
Published: 2026-10-17T05:35:22.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-17T05:35:22.000Z
Section: Business

> The July guidance assumed about $3.75 per gallon. CFO Devon May estimated the recent rise would add about $1 per gallon to fourth-quarter fuel costs.

American Airlines is heading into its third-quarter results call with a fuel assumption tied to a July forward curve, while its finance chief estimates higher prices will raise fourth-quarter costs.

The July guidance assumed an average fuel price of about $3.75 per gallon, based on the forward curve as of July 21. It projected an adjusted loss of $0.10 to $0.70 per diluted share, revenue growth of 16% to 19%, and third-quarter fuel expense $1.7 billion above the year-earlier quarter. In July, American also lowered its full-year adjusted earnings range to a $0.65 loss to a $0.65 profit per diluted share, citing higher fuel costs. Its April range was a $0.40 loss to $1.10 in profit per diluted share.

At a Sept. 16 investor conference, Chief Financial Officer Devon May said, “July and August are really similar to our guidance numbers.” He noted a small increase in September and estimated the recent rise would add about $1 per gallon to fourth-quarter fuel costs. May put each 1-cent-per-gallon increase at about $10 million per quarter. American plans to provide its fourth-quarter guidance during the results call.

Aircraft fuel and related taxes cost American $4.881 billion in the second quarter, $2.218 billion more than a year earlier, an 83.3% increase. The airline’s average price, including related taxes, was $4.05 per gallon, compared with $2.29 in the year-earlier quarter, while gallons consumed rose 3.5%. American offset nearly half of its fuel-cost headwind through higher fares. At June 30, it had no fuel-hedging contracts outstanding. It would remain fully exposed to fuel-price fluctuations if it entered no future hedges.

A separate Gulf Coast spot benchmark for jet fuel was $4.416 per gallon for the week ended Oct. 2. That regional spot price is distinct from American’s companywide Q3 fuel assumption, so the two figures do not represent the same measure.

American will discuss third-quarter results on Thursday, Oct. 22, at 8:30 a.m. ET (12:30 p.m. UTC).