# 1kx Projects Blockchain Revenue to Decline 28% in 2026 Amid Mix Shift

By John Kim

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/business/43798
Published: 2026-10-29T19:18:51.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-29T19:18:51.000Z
Section: Business

> Institutional activity and broader-economy uses made up 33% of third-quarter revenue; 1kx projects a 30% share for the full year.

Investment firm 1kx projected Oct. 29 that blockchain-related revenue would total about $100 billion in 2026, a 28% decline from roughly $140 billion in its 2025 comparison. The projection comes as institutional activity and broader-economy uses account for a growing share of revenue.

The estimate uses data through the third quarter, so it is not a completed annual result. 1kx linked the projected decline to lower digital-asset prices and said revenue was flat relative to total digital-asset market capitalization.

Institutional activity and broader-economy uses together represented 33% of revenue in the third quarter. 1kx projects that combined share will be 30% for the full year.

Broader-economy uses include tokenized assets, payments and prediction markets. The category made up 22% of third-quarter revenue, edging past blockchain infrastructure at 21% for the first time. Its revenue grew 58% year over year in the first half.

Institutional activity accounted for 12% of revenue through the third quarter, up from 6% in 2021. The category generated $6.1 billion in the first half, about twice its level three years earlier and $700 million less than in the same period a year ago. 1kx said the category’s share increased because total revenue fell faster.

The $100 billion estimate includes more than fees paid directly on-chain. Its scope covers off-chain exchange fees, public-company revenue, stablecoin reserve income, and mining and staking rewards. The report’s coverage includes 2,621 protocols and earnings reports from 104 public companies, so the estimate spans several sources of blockchain-related income.

“We've seen a shift towards fundamentals,” said Robert Koschig, 1kx’s head of economics.