# Estimated Applications Without Employer-Intent Indicators Rise 26.8% in AI-Exposed Sectors

By John Kim

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/business/52101
Published: 2026-11-09T06:21:24.000Z
Updated: 2026-11-09T06:21:24.000Z
Section: Business

> Four high-exposure industries saw total applications increase 18%; a separate self-employment measure rose 7.9% in AI-exposed industries from a 2022-23 baseline to 2025.

Estimated applications without employer-intent indicators climbed 26.8% across four U.S. industries with high AI exposure from the first quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2026, while high-propensity employer-type applications declined.

The four industries were professional services, information, education, and finance and insurance. Combined applications in those sectors rose 18% over the period, with the entire increase coming from applications without employer-intent indicators. High-propensity employer-type applications fell 6.4%.

The estimated figure is calculated by subtracting high-propensity employer-type applications from all business applications. It is a proxy for filings that lacked indicators of a near-term plan to hire, rather than an official count of solo businesses. The high-propensity category groups filings with characteristics historically associated with later employer-firm formation. Neither category reports whether a company ultimately hired.

The application comparison group consists of construction and wholesale trade. In those industries, total applications fell 4.7% from the first quarter of 2024 through the first quarter of 2026, while the proxy edged down 0.4%. On a separate index that sets the first quarter of 2022 at 100, the measure reached 139.2 in exposed industries by the first quarter of 2026, compared with 110.7 for the construction-wholesale group.

A separate analysis looked at self-employment without employees in AI-exposed industries. Against a 2022-23 baseline, self-employment without employees in those sectors was up 7.9% in 2025. The comparable measure for construction and wholesale trade fell 2.1%.

At the occupational level, the 10 occupations with the greatest AI exposure recorded a 20% rise in solo self-employment from the baseline. In the 10 least-exposed occupations, the measure was essentially unchanged. The exposure ranking was developed before the latest generation of generative AI tools.

The application filings and self-employment measures track different populations and periods. One captures business applications with or without hiring indicators at filing; the other counts people already self-employed without employees. They do not show how applicants' staffing changed after filing or establish that applicants became solo workers.

The application comparison spans two years and ends in the first quarter of 2026, covering January through March. The evidence is preliminary and descriptive. It does not establish that AI caused the pattern or show that traditional employment is disappearing.