# Hormuz traffic recovery leaves oil under pressure as tanker attack risk persists

By Riza Dagoc

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/insights/38287
Published: 2026-10-22T20:00:38.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-22T20:00:38.000Z
Section: Insights & Views

> Hal Kempfer says recovering Hormuz tanker traffic has not removed the attack risk embedded in shipping insurance costs, leaving pressure on oil prices.

Recovering oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz may offer limited relief from elevated oil costs while tanker attacks keep maritime insurance premiums high. The continuing threat to vessels is sustaining transport costs even as more cargo gets through.

In an interview with David Lin on October 22, Hal Kempfer, chief executive of Global Risk Intelligence and Planning and a retired Marine lieutenant colonel, credited US Navy support with helping restore tanker traffic. He said the volume passing through the strait had recovered, but the risks facing those shipments remained substantial.

Kempfer said shipping had shifted from routes through the middle of the strait, crossing Omani and Iranian territorial waters, toward a southern passage close to Oman's coast. US Navy assistance had developed from guiding vessels toward something closer to escorting them, allowing traffic in both directions to increase, he said.

Some vessels with smaller radar signatures pass through the strait before transferring cargo between ships farther south, according to Kempfer. He said about 97% of vessels made the passage without problems, while about 3% were targeted. One recently struck vessel sank while being towed back to port, he added, illustrating the exposure reflected in shipping insurance premiums.

Reducing those premiums would require curbing missile and drone attacks, but Kempfer said a ground invasion was not necessary. Iran's large stockpile of weapons and dispersed launch locations meant there was no single solution. He expected investment in technology to intercept cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and drones to expand before any ground invasion.

Even a ground campaign would require substantial forces because of Iran's geography and would not necessarily eliminate the missile and drone threat, he said. Kempfer also said he had seen no evidence of extensive mining in the strait. While some indications suggested mines might have been deployed, floating mines could drift toward Iranian waters with the currents, he added.

Kempfer was cautious about prospects for a quick end to the war. He argued that Iran's leadership and Revolutionary Guard Corps had sought to use pressure ahead of US midterm elections as negotiating leverage, but President Trump had not responded by conceding terms. In his assessment, the naval blockade's impact on oil revenue and insurgent activity inside Iran were adding to pressure on the leadership to reconsider its strategy after the elections.

He also interpreted public discussion of possible US use of the large non-nuclear MOAB bomb as a form of political and psychological pressure. Kempfer said mentioning the weapon itself carried a psychological message, while describing underground weapons storage sites and tunnel entrances as possible targets. His broader assessment remained that eliminating the missile and drone threat would take time and had no single military solution.