# Ahuja Says Bitcoin Has Passed Its Cycle Low as Policy Risks Persist By Token Post Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/insights/47971 Published: 2026-11-03T19:59:09.000Z Updated: 2026-11-03T19:59:09.000Z Section: Insights & Views > He expects a gradual recovery with intermittent corrections. Ahuja said the U.S. election’s effects on liquidity and interest rates matter more than its outcome alone. Moon Pursuit Capital founder and managing partner Utkarsh Ahuja said Bitcoin’s cycle low is behind it, offering a market outlook as investors weigh U.S. policy and inflation risks. Ahuja expects a gradual recovery with intermittent corrections. In commentary shared ahead of the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections, he said markets would focus on how the results affect liquidity, interest rates and financing costs rather than on the outcome alone. He said political uncertainty and expectations of tighter monetary policy could pressure risk assets, while a less disruptive result than feared could support a rally. Ahuja cited third-quarter U.S. growth of 3.4% and September annual personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation of 3.6% when arguing that monetary policy could remain restrictive. The Fed kept its 3.75%–4% rate range in October; two policymakers favored raising it. Ahuja said the debate is whether another hike will be needed in December. Ahuja also described the Iran conflict as a possible inflation risk. He said escalation or shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could lift energy costs. During geopolitical stress, he added, Bitcoin may continue to trade as a risk asset, with investors initially reducing exposure to raise liquidity. A previous [cycle analysis]() noted that timing alone does not confirm a market bottom and that Bitcoin holder losses in this cycle have not matched levels seen near previous bottoms. ## Links in this article - [cycle analysis](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/28855)