# Murphy Sees Bitcoin Recovery Case in Narrowing Indicator Troughs

By Token Post

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/insights/52375
Published: 2026-11-09T15:07:09.000Z
Updated: 2026-11-09T15:07:09.000Z
Section: Insights & Views

> His indicator-defined bear-market phase had lasted about 11 months as of Nov. 8, compared with roughly 14 months in 2018-19 and 13 months in 2021-23.

Market analyst Murphy says a narrowing pattern in a Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain indicator supports his case for a cyclical recovery, although his model still classifies the current phase as a bear market.

In a Nov. 8 analysis, Murphy estimated that the indicator-defined bear-market phase had lasted about 11 months. He compared it with roughly 14 months in 2018-19 and 13 months in 2021-23. Those periods describe phases under his indicator, not uninterrupted stretches of losses or falling prices.

His measure, realized profit/loss ratio momentum (RPLR-M), tracks acceleration or deceleration in an entity-adjusted ratio of realized profits to realized losses. Murphy examines how long its readings remain in red or green zones, whether green peaks decline and whether successive red troughs become shallower.

Under his framework, the deepest red trough tends to appear early in a bear-market phase, when realized losses accelerate. A later price low can coincide with a less extreme indicator reading. Murphy interprets that combination as a sign that the later decline prompted less panic selling than the earlier one.

Murphy sees that pattern in the current cycle: The red troughs have narrowed after an initial low. He argues that their shape, together with the roughly 11-month duration, is consistent with the bear-market phases he identified in the two earlier cycles. In his framework, a full phase runs from deep red readings through shallower troughs to a turn into green.

Murphy also draws a distinction between the indicator’s A and B zones. In the two earlier cycles he compared, a move into the green B zone was not followed by a return to the A zone and a fresh bear-market cycle. Brief red readings could still occur within B; he says those periods tended to be shorter and appear alongside lower green peaks, signaling slower profit acceleration. That historical comparison does not establish that the current cycle has entered B.

Murphy cautions that past patterns may not repeat. Macroeconomic uncertainty remains, and Bitcoin could experience sharper volatility than expected. His conclusion is that the indicator’s current pattern has not overturned his case for a cyclical recovery.