# Bitcoin falls below short-term holder cost basis; 11 of 14 past breaks reversed within two weeks

By John Kim

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/insights/55364
Published: 2026-11-12T12:20:26.000Z
Updated: 2026-11-12T12:20:26.000Z
Section: Insights & Views

> Bitcoin was on its fourth day below short-term holder cost basis. Bitfinex found that 11 of 14 comparable breaks since 2016 reversed within two weeks.

Bitcoin was on its fourth day below the average purchase price of short-term holders. In 11 of 14 comparable episodes, it recovered that level within two weeks.

In its “Bitcoin: Correction or Reset?” report published on November 11, 2026, Bitfinex said bitcoin had fallen below the short-term holder cost basis 14 times since 2016 after trading above it for at least 60 days. It regained the level within two weeks in 11 cases. The other three recoveries took 57–114 days, with lows over the following 90 days falling 17–35% below the cost basis.

Bitfinex said the measure has helped distinguish the start of a new bull market from a recovery within a longer bear market. Bitcoin traded within 0.2% of the short-term holder cost basis on November 5–7 before moving clearly below it on November 8.

The report placed the two-week mark for the current episode on November 22, after Nvidia’s earnings and the Anthropic listing. Bitfinex also flagged the share of bitcoin supply held in profit as a reason for caution: it stood at 56%, below the 58% threshold.