# Bitcoin’s 2028 halving puts liquidity easing and scarcity in focus

By Riza Dagoc

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/insights/56143
Published: 2026-11-13T01:20:37.000Z
Updated: 2026-11-13T01:20:37.000Z
Section: Insights & Views

> Strive’s Joe Burnett outlined how easier liquidity and renewed attention to Bitcoin’s scarcity could converge ahead of the 2028 halving, despite near-term tightening pressures.

Easier liquidity within a year of Bitcoin’s 2028 halving could coincide with renewed attention to its limited supply, creating supportive market conditions. The argument centers on longer-term money supply growth despite near-term monetary tightening.

In a November 12 interview on CoinDesk’s X account, Joe Burnett, VP of Bitcoin Strategy at Strive, outlined how those forces could converge as the next halving approaches. His assessment depended on liquidity conditions shifting from tightening toward easing.

Burnett attributed Bitcoin’s subdued performance to tighter monetary conditions and competition for capital from AI investments. He said Bitcoin had traded near $69,000 at its November 2021 peak and was around $71,000–$72,000 at the time of the interview, leaving its return over five years close to 0%. Higher interest rates, energy costs and inflationary pressure from the Iran conflict had added to the strain, he said.

Further tightening remained possible in the near term. Burnett said the market expectations he had last checked pointed to a Federal Reserve rate increase of at least 25 basis points in December, potentially followed by additional increases early the following year. If investors had already priced in increases, an unexpected hold could support volatile risk assets such as Bitcoin, he said.

His longer-term argument rested on continued expansion in the dollar supply. Burnett said he expected US M2, a broad measure of money supply, to increase over time, framing periods of restricted liquidity as temporary within that broader monetary trend.

Burnett also cited historical performance following Fed rate increases. He recalled that Bitcoin’s compound annual returns over the three years following each increase had been positive and generally substantial in the data he reviewed, although he said he did not remember the exact figures. He stressed that longer holding periods still involved exposure to extreme short-term volatility.

He described the halving primarily as a reinforcement of Bitcoin’s supply structure. Burnett acknowledged that newly mined coins represent a relatively small share of trading volume and said he did not view the halving day itself as a major price catalyst. He nevertheless argued that the supply rules and scarcity underpin Bitcoin’s monetary appeal.

AI’s influence on capital allocation could also change, Burnett said. High expected returns had attracted investment into data centers and chips, but expanding capacity could eventually compress margins and slow growth. He suggested that if AI increased the abundance of assets such as gold or housing, or weakened companies’ competitive advantages, Bitcoin’s scarcity could draw greater attention alongside easier liquidity ahead of the halving.