# Kalshi Prices Anthropic Ahead of OpenAI in IPO Announcement Race

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/23278
Published: 2026-09-23T12:48:29.000Z
Updated: 2026-09-23T12:48:29.000Z

Kalshi traders are giving Anthropic the edge over OpenAI in a prediction market on which artificial-intelligence company will announce or confirm an initial public offering first, putting the contest on a timeline rather than a completed listing.

The contract page displayed Anthropic at 75% and OpenAI at 22%, with $278,366 in trading volume. The contract, titled “Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?”, resolves for Anthropic if it confirms an IPO before OpenAI and before Jan. 1, 2040.

Market expectations placed Anthropic’s expected IPO announcement before Nov. 1, 2026, with OpenAI’s expected timing several months later. Those market expectations give Anthropic an early lead, but neither company has committed to a listing date.

Anthropic said June 1 that it had confidentially submitted a draft registration statement on Form S-1 to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing gives the company the option to go public after the SEC completes its review, while any offering would depend on market conditions and other factors.

“This gives us the option to go public after the SEC completes its review,” Anthropic said.

OpenAI said June 8 that it had recently submitted a confidential draft S-1 to the SEC. The company said it had not decided on timing and that the process could take a while because some planned work may be easier while it remains private.

“We have not decided on timing yet; it may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company,” OpenAI said.

A confidential draft S-1 lets a company begin the SEC review process without immediately publishing the full registration statement. Neither Anthropic nor OpenAI has disclosed an offering size, share price or definitive listing date in the announcements.

The prediction-market prices represent trader expectations. They do not establish that either company will proceed with an offering, receive regulatory clearance or complete an IPO by a specific date.