# Market-Implied Odds Show 54.2% Chance of October Fed Hike

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/23400
Published: 2026-09-23T16:35:23.000Z
Updated: 2026-09-23T16:35:23.000Z

Market-implied odds show a 54.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise its target range by 25 basis points at its October meeting, versus 45.8% for no change.

If policymakers hold rates, the target range would remain at 3.75% to 4%.

By December, the probability of the range remaining unchanged is 10.8%. The odds of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase are 47.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase is 41.4%.