# Bitcoin Cost-Basis Crossover Marks Fifth Bull-Market Signal

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/23620
Published: 2026-09-24T08:05:33.000Z
Updated: 2026-09-24T08:05:33.000Z

Bitcoin (BTC)’s short-term holder cost basis has moved above the cost basis of active long-term holders, marking the fifth historical occurrence of a defined bull-market confirmation signal.

The active long-term holder measure excludes BTC that has remained unmoved for a long time. More than 3.5 million BTC has not moved for over 10 years, and excluding that dormant supply reduces its effect on the cost-basis calculation.

Continued liquidity entering through exchange-traded funds is one important driver of the improved market structure.

The indicator can fail and is not an absolute market-prediction signal.