# J.P. Morgan Flags Stagflation Risks Without Major Economic Slowdown

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/24000
Published: 2026-09-25T05:20:01.000Z
Updated: 2026-09-25T05:20:01.000Z

J.P. Morgan managing director James Sullivan warned that stagflation risks could rise even without a significant economic slowdown, as high oil prices and persistent core inflation weigh on the global outlook.

Oil remaining above $100 a barrel for an extended period could mark the beginning of a stagflation period, Sullivan said. He described the combination of reasonable economic growth and higher inflation as a development reviving debate last prominent in the 1970s.

“Reasonable levels of economic growth with higher levels of inflation start to trigger this stagflation conversation,” Sullivan said.

Sullivan also highlighted record issuance across the artificial intelligence industry and record government budget deficits. Those trends could affect pricing, particularly if demand weakens, he said.

Investors with longer-term horizons are increasingly moving toward corporate markets rather than government markets, Sullivan said. That shift is creating a mismatch between supply and demand.

The global outlook is also being affected by El Niño and the conflict in the Middle East. Rising food and energy prices helped trigger one of the first coordinated central-bank tightening cycles in many years, Sullivan said.

Core inflation has remained relatively sticky, and the conditions driving it are not expected to reverse in the short term, he added.