# Markets Price Roughly 69% Chance of October Fed Rate Hike

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/25035
Published: 2026-09-28T17:29:53.000Z
Updated: 2026-09-28T17:29:53.000Z
Section: Investing

> Federal funds futures imply 17.4 basis points of tightening at the Fed’s Oct. 27-28 meeting. The probability is cited as both 68% and 69%, creating a one-point discrepancy.

Federal funds futures imply roughly a 69% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its Oct. 27-28 meeting, keeping expectations for tighter U.S. monetary policy elevated ahead of the decision.

The pricing represents 17.4 basis points of tightening for the October meeting.

The current pricing compares with an earlier 71% estimate for an October rate hike. The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet Oct. 27-28.

The Fed generally announces policy decisions at 2 p.m. ET on the second day of regularly scheduled meetings. The October calendar does not list a specific release time.

The central bank last raised its federal-funds target range by 25 basis points on Sept. 16, bringing it to 3.75%-4%. The decision was unanimous, with all 12 voting members supporting the increase. The statement was released at 2 p.m. EDT (6 p.m. UTC).

Federal Reserve records show rate increases in September before November elections in 2004, 2018 and 2022. Those decisions included a 25-basis-point increase in September 2018 and a 75-basis-point increase in September 2022.

The next scheduled policy decision is the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Oct. 28.

## Links in this article

- [an earlier 71% estimate for an October rate hike](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/23415)