# Analyst Sees 75% Chance Crypto Cycle Has Turned as Bitcoin Pulls Back

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/25102
Published: 2026-09-28T23:44:34.000Z
Updated: 2026-09-28T23:44:34.000Z
Section: Investing

> Bitcoin’s latest decline was shallower and shorter than previous bear markets, but the assessment does not rule out another drop.

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods senior equity research analyst Stephen Glagola assigned a 75% probability that the broader crypto cycle had turned, even as Bitcoin (BTC) pulled back from its latest recovery.

The assessment accompanied KBW’s resumed coverage of Coinbase. It describes a possible shift in the market cycle rather than a forecast for Bitcoin’s next price move, and does not rule out another decline.

Bitcoin fell 53% from its October 2025 peak to a June 30 closing low near $58,500. The decline lasted about 8.8 months, compared with roughly 12 months for the previous three bear markets, which averaged an 82% peak-to-trough decline.

Bitcoin closed near $84,400 on Sept. 26, about 44% above its June 30 close. It traded near $83,100 on Sept. 28, down about 1.6% from the previous session.

The assessment also noted that earlier Bitcoin recoveries followed by rallies of more than 30% later failed. That history limits the significance of a recovery without confirming that the broader cycle has changed.

KBW resumed coverage of Coinbase with an Outperform rating and a $237 price target. The assessment cited a $195.11 market price for the exchange.

Coinbase’s share of crypto trading volume rose to 10.3% in the second quarter from 9.1% in the first quarter. Average USDC holdings across its products reached $20 billion.

Bitcoin’s current market structure is diverging from earlier four-year cycles, suggesting that the traditional pattern may not apply consistently. The historical comparison remains focused on the depth and duration of past declines rather than a confirmed bottom.