# Bitcoin Prediction Markets Put 2026 Odds of Touching $100,000 at 39%

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/26591
Published: 2026-10-03T20:21:07.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-03T20:21:07.000Z
Section: Investing

> Polymarket’s Bitcoin threshold market shows $72.6 million in volume, while Kalshi’s year-end closing-price market has recorded about $39.5 million.

Bitcoin (BTC) prediction markets put the chance of touching $100,000 before 2027 at 39%, while separate year-end price contracts and model estimates offer different measures of market expectations.

Polymarket’s 2026 Bitcoin price prediction market has recorded $72.6 million in volume and lists a reference price of about $84,950. Its implied probabilities are 73% for Bitcoin reaching $90,000, 54% for $95,000 and 39% for $100,000 before 2027.

Kalshi’s Bitcoin year-end closing-price market has recorded about $39.5 million in volume, with a forecast value of $86,240. That market concerns Bitcoin’s closing price at year-end, while Polymarket’s figures track whether it reaches specified thresholds.

Claude Opus 5.5 and ChatGPT-6 Astra put Bitcoin’s price on Dec. 31, 2026, at $91,500 and $94,000, respectively. These are model estimates, separate from the market probabilities and year-end contract value.