# Bitcoin On-Chain Model Turns Bullish With Five Indicators Aligned

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/29194
Published: 2026-10-09T18:15:25.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-09T18:15:25.000Z
Section: Investing

> A rules-based regime model is 67% net long for a second consecutive month as key cost-basis and profitability measures improve.

Bitcoin’s on-chain market structure has improved, with five indicators entering historically bullish territory as a rules-based model maintains a 67% net-long allocation for a second consecutive month.

The combination was last seen in October 2025. The model was 100% net long on Oct. 1, 2025, fell to 33% on Nov. 1 and reached zero on Dec. 1, remaining there through most of the subsequent drawdown. It returned to 67% on Sept. 1, 2026.

Bitcoin’s short-term realized price, which estimates the average cost of recently purchased coins, is $74,319. BTC is trading above that level. The True Market Mean, a measure of the cost basis of active capital, stands at $77,460, also below Bitcoin’s latest price of about $82,000.

The other three indicators are Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), which compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value and stands at 0.20; Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which has returned to positive territory for the first time since October 2025; and Value Days Destroyed (VDD), which tracks coin movements based on age and value and has also entered historically bullish territory.

The model is not fully invested because some indicators have not turned bullish, while others have only recently crossed their thresholds. A sustained move below both the short-term realized price and the True Market Mean would be an early warning that the recovery is weakening.

The improving on-chain readings contrast with Bitcoin’s recent performance. BTC fell nearly $7,000 after failing to break above $87,000. It was down 4.5% over seven days and more than 32% over the past year at the latest reading.

Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows totaled $731 million on Oct. 7 and 8, while realized profit-taking exceeded $1 billion. The two cost-basis levels provide an early test of whether the recovery is weakening, while the model also incorporates other indicators.