# Bitcoin Volatility Falls in 2026 as Extreme Daily Moves Exceed 2018 Pace By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/29407 Published: 2026-10-10T05:48:20.000Z Updated: 2026-10-10T05:48:20.000Z Section: Investing > Bitcoin’s annualized volatility is about 46% year to date, but it has posted 10 three-sigma daily moves through Oct. 9, compared with eight during all of 2018. Bitcoin’s overall volatility has declined in 2026, but the cryptocurrency has recorded more unusually large daily moves through Oct. 9 than it did during all of the 2018 bear market, highlighting limits in risk models based on recent conditions. Bitcoin (BTC) posted 10 daily moves of at least three standard deviations through Oct. 9, compared with eight during all of 2018. The 2026 figure covers only part of the year, while the comparison figure covers the full year. A three-sigma move is a daily price change at least three times Bitcoin’s preceding 30-day realized volatility. Under a normal distribution, about 99.7% of observations fall within three standard deviations, making such moves statistically unusual. Annualized Bitcoin volatility was about 46% year to date in 2026, down from 84% in 2018. The average three-sigma move also declined to roughly 7% from about 10% in 2018, when Bitcoin lost 73% of its value. Separate measures placed Bitcoin’s annualized volatility at about 47% on Oct. 5 and about 46% for 2026 year to date. Over the period beginning in 2024 and ending Oct. 9, BTC had 26 three-sigma sessions. The comparable totals were eight for Nvidia, 16 for the S&P 500 and 12 for gold. The figures show smaller average price swings alongside recurring episodes of unusually large moves. That combination can affect risk systems that rely heavily on recent volatility to estimate potential losses. Value at risk, or VaR, estimates a loss threshold over a specified period and confidence level. When recent volatility remains subdued, the threshold can fall even though the market still records occasional large price changes. Expected shortfall provides an alternative by estimating the severity of losses beyond the VaR threshold. Sudden repricings can be associated with macroeconomic shocks and crowded derivatives positions, including short-volatility and call-overwriting trades. Call overwriting involves selling call options against an underlying position and can concentrate exposure when many traders use the same strategy. Hyperliquid launched a Bitcoin implied-volatility index contract on Sept. 29 with leverage of up to 5x. The product adds a direct way for traders to take positions linked to expected Bitcoin price swings, alongside traditional spot and options markets. TokenPost previously covered [Hyperliquid’s Bitcoin volatility product](). ## Links in this article - [Hyperliquid’s Bitcoin volatility product](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/25348)