# Crypto Failure Studies Show No Single Bankruptcy Rate for 2026

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/30160
Published: 2026-10-12T09:27:57.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-12T09:27:57.000Z
Section: Investing

> Exchange defaults, market losses, simulated Bitcoin outcomes and inactive tokens measure different risks across separate periods and cannot be combined.

Crypto failure figures do not support a single industry-wide bankruptcy rate for 2026 because the available measurements cover different assets, risks and time periods.

One analysis of 845 cryptocurrency exchanges through February 2023 identified 366 defaults, or 43.3%, while 479 exchanges, or 56.7%, remained active. The analysis used “default” broadly to include halted operations, financial distress and bankruptcy, so the figure does not represent confirmed legal bankruptcies.

Higher default risk was associated with centralized exchange models, high withdrawal fees, no restrictions on U.S. clients, fewer peer cryptocurrencies and lower ratings.

Market losses represent a separate measure. More than $1.8 trillion in crypto market value disappeared during the 2022 downturn after prices peaked in November 2021. More than $450 billion in losses were attributed to market turmoil after the Terra/Luna collapse in May 2022, while another $200 billion was tied to the aftermath of FTX’s bankruptcy in November 2022.

An analysis covering August 2015 through December 2022 found that a majority of crypto-app users in nearly all economies lost money on their Bitcoin holdings. Trading activity increased after the Terra/Luna and FTX shocks, with large investors selling while smaller retail investors bought. The analysis also found little discernible effect from the 2022 crypto turmoil on broader financial conditions outside the crypto market.

Separate Monte Carlo research estimated the bankruptcy probability of Bitcoin investment strategies using price data from Sept. 1, 2014, through July 1, 2022. The model estimated a 17%–23% probability for a short-term strategy and 13%–16% for a long-term strategy.

The study generally defined short-term investing as lasting less than 30 days and long-term investing as lasting up to two years. Those estimates describe simulated investment outcomes, not the likelihood that an exchange or crypto company will enter legal bankruptcy.

Token failures form another category. A review of cryptocurrencies listed on GeckoTerminal found that 53.2% had failed by Dec. 31, 2025. The calculation included tokens with at least one trade before becoming defunct.

The review counted 11,564,909 dead coins in 2025, compared with 1,382,010 in 2024, 245,049 in 2023, 213,075 in 2022 and 2,584 in 2021. It found that 86.3% of recorded failures from 2021 through 2025 occurred in 2025.

These figures cannot be added together. Exchange defaults measure platform survival, market-value declines measure losses across crypto assets, the Bitcoin model estimates simulated investment outcomes, and the token figures count inactive projects within a specific platform’s listings.

The available material therefore provides historical indicators rather than a comprehensive count of crypto exchange bankruptcies or investor losses during 2026. No reviewed figure establishes a current industry-wide bankruptcy rate.