# Bitcoin Reclaims Key Levels as Bull-Market Case Strengthens By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/30340 Published: 2026-10-12T13:18:57.000Z Updated: 2026-10-12T13:18:57.000Z Section: Investing > Bitcoin moved above its 50-week average and 365-day MVRV average, while its 2026 decline remains shallower than earlier cycle drawdowns. Bitcoin has regained several measures used to assess long-term market strength, reinforcing a conditional case that its 2026 downturn may have ended without establishing that a new bull cycle is underway. Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed its 50-week simple moving average, moved above its 365-day MVRV average and held above its realized price during the decline. The combination has become a key reference point for whether the market is transitioning out of a bearish phase. ## Key market levels The 50-week moving average stood at about $78,800. Bitcoin closed the week of Sept. 20 near $81,200 and the week of Sept. 27 near $84,456 before trading around $86,500 on Oct. 5. Sustained recoveries above the 50-week average accompanied cycle transitions in 2015, 2019 and 2023. That history makes the level important to traders assessing whether the recent downturn has run its course. MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value, an estimate of the aggregate on-chain cost basis based on the prices at which coins last moved. The ratio was 1.56 on Oct. 12, while its 365-day average was 1.44. Bitcoin also remained above its realized price on a daily-closing basis throughout the 2026 decline, unlike the bear markets that ended in 2015, 2018 and 2022. ## A shallower drawdown Bitcoin’s 2026 decline extended from $124,824 in October 2025 to $58,525 on June 30, 2026, a drop of about 53%. Earlier cycle drawdowns reached 84.5% in 2013-2015, 83.8% in 2017-2018 and 76.7% in 2021-2022. The smaller decline is one part of the broader market argument, but it does not by itself confirm a lasting change in trend. The current interpretation also depends on Bitcoin continuing to hold the cited moving-average and realized-price levels. Long-term holder holdings provide another part of the picture. Coins held for at least 155 days reached about 16.64 million BTC in September, representing roughly 83% of circulating supply. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds held about 1.3 million BTC on Oct. 2, broadly unchanged from the end of January. [Earlier analysis of Bitcoin’s cycle outlook]() examined competing views on whether the market had reached a cycle low. ## Conditional outlook BloFin Research said Bitcoin “has entered a new bull market” and added that “sharp corrections will remain part of the journey.” The firm described the next issue as how the advance will unfold rather than whether the market has recovered from its previous decline. BloFin Research also wrote, “The more interesting question is how this advance will unfold.” The bullish interpretation remains conditional. A sustained weekly close below $78,800 would weaken the scenario, as would a break through the cited $74,000-$77,000 support zone. The indicators therefore point to a market that has recovered important trend and on-chain levels, while confirmation of a new cycle still depends on continued support above those thresholds. ## Links in this article - [Earlier analysis of Bitcoin’s cycle outlook](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/26987)