# Bitcoin Prediction Markets Put October Odds of Touching $80,000 Above $92,500

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/31567
Published: 2026-10-13T22:43:22.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-13T22:43:22.000Z
Section: Investing

> Polymarket prices a 54% chance of Bitcoin touching $80,000 during October, while Kalshi shows 55% odds of trading below that level.

Bitcoin prediction markets are pricing higher October odds for Bitcoin (BTC) to touch or fall below $80,000 than to reach $92,500, putting the downside threshold ahead of the higher target in both markets.

Polymarket assigns a 54% probability that Bitcoin will touch $80,000 during October, compared with 19% for reaching $92,500. Its other downside probabilities are 31% for $77,500, 20% for $75,000 and 11% for $72,500. On the upside, the market shows 10% for $95,000 and 4% for $97,500.

Kalshi shows a 55% probability that Bitcoin will trade below $80,000 during the month. Its odds are 30% for a move below $77,500 and 18% for a move below $75,000.

Kalshi’s upside contracts assign a 49% probability to Bitcoin trading above $87,500, 36% to trading above $90,000 and 20% to trading above $92,500.

Polymarket’s October market opened Oct. 1, 2026, at 1:07 a.m. ET (05:07 UTC) and is scheduled to end Oct. 31, 2026. It recorded $6,179,510 in total volume when accessed Oct. 14. Kalshi’s downside market showed $260,048 in volume, while its upside market showed $791,530.

These contracts track whether Bitcoin reaches a specified threshold at any point during October rather than where it finishes the month. A contract trading at 54 cents is generally read as implying a 54% market probability before fees and other market effects.

Polymarket’s rules use Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candles. Downside contracts resolve “Yes” when a qualifying candle’s final low reaches or falls below the stated price, while upside contracts resolve “Yes” when a candle’s final high reaches or exceeds the threshold.

Kalshi operates under oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Polymarket’s international platform operates separately from Polymarket US, which is a CFTC-regulated designated contract market.

The market prices are implied probabilities, not forecasts from Bitcoin’s underlying market and not guarantees that any price level will be reached. The October contracts are scheduled to run through Oct. 31, 2026.