# Bitcoin Power-Law Model Extends Early Price Trend Into Long-Term Framework By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/31568 Published: 2026-10-13T22:43:34.000Z Updated: 2026-10-13T22:43:34.000Z Section: Investing > The model uses Bitcoin’s historical price and days since genesis to trace a statistical trendline, excluding adoption, regulation and broader market conditions. A historical Bitcoin (BTC) power-law model extends the asset’s early price trend through time, but its formula excludes adoption, regulation and other fundamentals that influence markets. Bitcointalk user dacoinminster published the model on Feb. 13, 2013, using the number of days since Bitcoin’s Jan. 3, 2009, genesis block. The formula is: Price = 4.41877086088824E-17 × (days since Genesis Block)^5.59806919936792 The model’s power-function fit had an R-squared of 0.7728, compared with 0.6990 for an exponential model based on the data available at the time. R-squared measures how closely a model fits the historical observations used to build it. “Bitcoin growth has always been on a logarithmic scale. 2011 was a bubble. This is not,” dacoinminster wrote. The constants in the version described here were not refitted for later market conditions. The framework therefore extends a relationship derived from early Bitcoin data rather than recalculating the relationship as the market developed. It also does not include adoption, exchange-traded fund flows, regulation, interest rates, inflation, network activity or competing assets. Its results are consequently statistical outputs from a historical trendline, not valuations based on those factors. Bitcoin’s Oct. 12, 2026, UTC close was $81,795, with daily trading volume of $15.154 billion. The market data provides a current reference point for the asset but does not change the model’s underlying assumptions. The power-law approach remains part of Bitcoin market analysis, including a separate indicator that placed a reference level near $157,800 for a +100 reading under parameters calculated Oct. 3. That level was a model reference rather than a fixed price target, as the associated trendline can change over time. [An earlier analysis explains how the Bitcoin power-law indicator works](). ## Links in this article - [An earlier analysis explains how the Bitcoin power-law indicator works](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/26640)