# Zillow Forecasts Fourth-Quarter U.S. Home Sales to Fall Up to 3.5% By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/31827 Published: 2026-10-14T13:17:53.000Z Updated: 2026-10-14T13:17:53.000Z Section: Investing > The two projections use different sales measures. September sales rose from August but remained below their year-earlier level. Zillow projects U.S. existing-home sales will decline year over year in the fourth quarter of 2026, with estimates ranging from 2.8% to 3.5% depending on the sales measure. The projections are forecasts, while the latest reported figures show September sales rose from August but stayed below their year-earlier level. Zillow’s forecast calls for a 3.5% fourth-quarter decline using its own sales count and a 2.8% drop using the National Association of Realtors (NAR) measure. The two estimates use different methods and are not directly interchangeable. For the full year, Zillow projects 4.08 million sales under the NAR measure, up 0.5% from 2025. Its own count forecast is 3.766 million sales, a 1.2% year-over-year increase. September existing-home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million. Sales were up 1.5% from August and down 2.2% from September 2025. Inventory totaled 1.60 million homes at the end of September. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.40% for the week of Oct. 8, 2026, up from 7.28% the previous week and 6.30% a year earlier. National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun said, “Further increases in mortgage rates in recent weeks mean fewer buyers can qualify to purchase a home.” NAR’s measure counts completed transactions. Zillow also publishes its own sales count, which is why its fourth-quarter estimates differ. September sales data provide the latest reported comparison; fourth-quarter results have not yet been reported. [September sales rose 1.5% to a 3.99 million annual rate](). ## Links in this article - [September sales rose 1.5% to a 3.99 million annual rate](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/31296)