# MSCI exclusion risk largely priced in as Bitcoin eyes $95,000-$100,000 by year-end

By Riza Dagoc

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/33370
Published: 2026-10-16T17:00:28.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-16T17:00:28.000Z
Section: Investing

> Fundstrat’s Sean Ferrell said a potential MSCI exclusion of Bitcoin treasury companies is largely priced in. He sees Bitcoin reaching $95,000-$100,000 by year-end, though not reclaiming its record high.

The risk that MSCI will remove Bitcoin treasury companies from its global indexes is largely priced in, while Bitcoin could reach $95,000 to $100,000 by year-end.

In an Oct. 16 Bitcoin Magazine interview, Sean Ferrell, head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said the market has had several months to digest a potential change to MSCI’s index eligibility criteria. An exclusion decision could trigger a negative initial reaction, he said, but would probably not cause a major disruption.

Ferrell estimated that MSCI-linked indexes hold about 13 million Strategy shares, equivalent to roughly $2 billion in potential flows. He said the amount was not systemic, noting that Strategy issued about $2 billion of stock in mid-August under less liquid market conditions.

If MSCI does not adopt the new filtering criteria, the decision could provide an upside catalyst, Ferrell said. The proposed criteria would apply to essentially all digital asset treasury companies, although Strategy remains the main focus for markets.

A decline in bond and equity volatility, together with easing stress in credit markets, could help markets absorb an exclusion announcement. Ferrell said the negative outcome was already priced in, leaving relatively limited downside from that factor alone and potentially creating a base for another move higher.

Strategy’s improved financial position could also cushion the impact. Ferrell said the company made a consequential mistake in its capital-markets activities in the second quarter but subsequently raised capital, strengthened its balance sheet and repurchased about $1.5 billion of its preferred security, helping it move toward par.

A shareholder vote scheduled for the end of the month could also support demand for the preferred security. The proposal would change the dividend cadence from twice monthly to daily, which Ferrell said could attract incremental demand. While an MSCI exclusion could have a short-term impact, he remained encouraged that the security could approach par by month-end.

Ferrell said the macroeconomic environment had shifted in a direction that was favorable for Bitcoin over the medium to long term. He pointed to the country’s pronounced debt-to-GDP profile, the economy’s growing dependence on the stock market, above-target inflation and continued financial repression as conditions supportive of monetary-debasement hedges.

He identified the Treasury’s move in mid-August to increase purchases of longer-duration securities while funding them through bill issuance as a major catalyst for Bitcoin and other asset prices. If concerns about slowing AI investment prove justified, the resulting easing of monetary tightening effects, alongside an accommodative Treasury, could improve liquidity conditions.

Ferrell cautioned that Bitcoin would not be spared if equities fell about 20%. Bond and equity volatility could prompt investors to reduce risk in the near term, but he said the resilience of Bitcoin and Bitcoin-linked products over the past week indicated that the broader macro regime shift was taking hold.

Ferrell did not expect Bitcoin to return to its all-time high before year-end. Even with a murky near-term backdrop, however, he said $95,000 to $100,000 remained within reach before the end of the year.