# Polymarket Prices a 14% Chance of October Fed Hike as Bitcoin Closes at $81,524

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/33658
Published: 2026-10-17T02:21:37.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-17T02:21:37.000Z
Section: Investing

> The market showed 87% for no change and $44.7 million in volume. September producer prices rose 1.3% from August.

Bitcoin (BTC) closed at $81,524 on Oct. 16 UTC as Polymarket’s October Federal Reserve decision market priced a 14% chance of a quarter-point hike at a late-Friday snapshot, with inflation data setting the backdrop for the Fed’s next meeting.

At 10:15 p.m. ET Oct. 16 (02:15 UTC Oct. 17), the market showed 14% for a hike and 87% for no change, with $44,668,801 in total volume. The displayed probabilities are rounded to whole percentages. Contract prices reflect market expectations, not a Federal Reserve forecast.

The Consumer Price Index increased 0.6% in September after seasonal adjustment and stood 3.7% above its year-earlier level. Separately, the total final-demand producer price index advanced 1.3% from August on a seasonally adjusted basis and was up 6.3% from a year earlier, unadjusted. The index’s monthly gain was its largest since March 2022.

The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16 in a 12-0 vote. Its next two-day policy meeting is scheduled for Oct. 27-28.