# SpaceX Retakes Polymarket Lead in 2026 IPO Race as Anthropic Valuation Talk Cools

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/33873
Published: 2026-10-17T09:06:51.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-17T09:06:51.000Z
Section: Investing

> The contract uses first-day closing market capitalization, making SpaceX’s roughly $2.1 trillion debut-day value the benchmark.

SpaceX has moved back ahead of Anthropic in Polymarket’s market on which company will have the largest initial public offering by market capitalization in 2026. At 5 a.m. ET (9 a.m. UTC) Saturday, Oct. 17, the contract showed a 64% probability for SpaceX and 35.9% for Anthropic.

The shift followed investor discussions about a lower possible valuation for Anthropic. At an Oct. 14 investor meeting in San Francisco, some participants discussed a valuation near $1.5 trillion, down from roughly $2 trillion previously expected for a November share sale. The lower figure was discussed by investors; it was not an IPO price announced by Anthropic.

The company told prospective investors that third-quarter revenue reached $16.8 billion, up 45% from $11.6 billion in the second quarter. Second-quarter revenue rose from $4.7 billion in the first quarter to $11.6 billion, and Anthropic reported adjusted profitability in the third quarter.

The contract’s rules make SpaceX’s first-day trading performance the relevant benchmark. Its shares were priced at $135 in the IPO and closed their first trading day, June 12, at $160.95, giving SpaceX a market capitalization of about $2.1 trillion. The roughly $1.77 trillion figure often cited for the IPO reflects the company’s value at the offering price.

That distinction matters because the market compares first-day closing values, not IPO price tags. A reported $1.5 trillion valuation discussion alone does not determine whether Anthropic could surpass SpaceX’s first-day market value.