# U.S. Midterms Offer No Clear Signal for Coinbase and Circle Shares

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/34070
Published: 2026-10-17T15:04:12.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-17T15:04:12.000Z
Section: Investing

> Coinbase had $599.2 million in transaction revenue and $555.1 million in subscription and services revenue in the second quarter. Circle's reserve income made up 95.2% of its revenue and reserve income.

The Nov. 3 U.S. midterm election may add short-term volatility to Coinbase and Circle shares, but historical broad-market patterns offer no clear direction for either company.

Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) generated $1.2 billion in net revenue for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. Transaction revenue was $599.2 million, while subscription and services revenue was $555.1 million. Transaction revenue exceeded the subscription and services figure by $44.1 million, showing both were substantial parts of the reported mix.

Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) had $701.315 million in revenue and reserve income for the same quarter. Reserve income totaled $667.733 million, or 95.2% of the total. It depends on the amount of stablecoins in circulation and the reserve return rate, which is close to prevailing SOFR.

The companies therefore have different revenue factors to watch. Coinbase's figures include transaction activity as well as subscription and services revenue. Circle's much larger share of reserve income ties its results more closely to stablecoin circulation and reserve returns.

Growth, inflation, corporate earnings, interest rates and Federal Reserve policy are broader market drivers than the election calendar alone. Historical averages from previous midterms show volatility easing and U.S. equities rising after votes. That broad-market pattern, reflected in the S&P 500's post-midterm history, does not establish how COIN or CRCL will respond.

The election may shift policy expectations, but the available historical comparison offers no company-specific forecast. The vote is scheduled for Nov. 3, 2026.