# Polymarket Shows July as First Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Deadline Above 50%

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/34947
Published: 2026-10-19T18:20:02.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-19T18:20:02.000Z
Section: Investing

> At 2:14 p.m. ET Oct. 19 (18:14 UTC), the July contract stood at 52%, while June was at 49%.

Polymarket’s Russia-Ukraine ceasefire contracts showed July 2027 as the earliest deadline above 50% in a check at 2:14 p.m. ET on Oct. 19 (18:14 UTC), with July at 52% versus June’s 49%.

Earlier deadlines were lower: the Dec. 31, 2026 contract stood at 15%, and the March 31, 2027 contract at 31%. The Sept. 30, 2027 contract was at 57%, but came after July. Each contract measures the chance of a qualifying agreement by its deadline, not a ceasefire beginning in that month.

Cumulative trading volume was $3,771 for July and $165,248 for June. Total volume across the market was $8,848,465. These totals measure trading activity for the contracts, separate from their displayed odds, which can change as trading continues.

A qualifying deal must include a dated commitment to a general pause in fighting, announced by Russia and Ukraine or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. An arrangement covering only specific targets or locations does not meet the contract terms.