# J.P. Morgan Adds Bitcoin to 2027 Outlook With 10% Annual Return Forecast

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/35514
Published: 2026-10-20T09:54:47.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-20T09:54:47.000Z
Section: Investing

> Its 55% annualized volatility estimate for Bitcoin is far higher than its estimates for U.S. large-cap stocks and gold.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has added Bitcoin (BTC) to its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, projecting a 10% compound annual return over 10 to 15 years, above its estimates for U.S. stocks and gold.

The outlook gives Bitcoin its first long-term return forecast in the firm’s annual assumptions. Its compound annual return estimates are 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks and 5.5% for gold. Bitcoin’s estimate exceeds those figures by 2.5 and 4.5 percentage points, respectively.

The return comparison comes with a substantial difference in projected risk. Bitcoin’s estimated annualized volatility is 55%, compared with 18% for U.S. large-cap stocks and 17.2% for gold. Volatility describes how widely returns may vary; the estimates do not mean any asset will deliver its projected return each year.

The outlook also gives Bitcoin a 20.9% arithmetic annual return estimate. That is a separate measure from the 10% compound annual return, which expresses growth across the full forecast period as an annual rate. The two figures should not be read as competing near-term price predictions.

Bitcoin is outside J.P. Morgan’s main covariance matrices, which compare how asset classes move in relation to one another. It does appear in a smaller, separate matrix alongside a subset of assets. The distinction matters: the firm has added a Bitcoin return forecast and a limited comparison with other assets without placing it in its main matrices.

The figures are long-term planning assumptions spanning 10 to 15 years. They compare potential returns and volatility across asset classes, rather than describing current market performance or setting a target for Bitcoin’s price.