# Goldman Sachs Forecast Points to Lower U.S. Home Sales in 2027

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/36394
Published: 2026-10-21T05:57:32.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-21T05:57:32.000Z
Section: Investing

> A separate survey found first-time buyers made up 60% of younger millennial purchases, down from 71% in the prior survey.

Goldman Sachs projects roughly 3.9 million sales of existing U.S. homes in 2027. The share of younger millennial buyers purchasing a first home has fallen.

The forecast compares with 5.34 million existing-home sales in 2019. Higher mortgage rates may discourage owners with cheaper fixed-rate loans from selling, while people entering the market face current borrowing costs.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.40% Thursday, Oct. 15. A measure of the gap between existing fixed-rate mortgages and comparable market rates averaged 2.54 percentage points in the second quarter of 2024. That difference gives some owners an incentive to keep a lower-rate loan rather than take on a new mortgage when they move.

September's seasonally adjusted pace of existing-home sales was an annualized 3.99 million, a 2.2% decline from a year earlier. The median sale price rose 1.3% from a year earlier to $417,500, showing that the slower sales pace coincided with higher prices.

A survey covering primary-home purchases from July 2024 through June 2025 found that first-time buyers made up 60% of younger millennial buyers, down from 71% in the previous survey. The share was 33% among older millennial buyers. These figures describe the buyers in each age group, not homeownership rates for all millennials.

First-time purchasers represented 31% of September's existing-home sales, compared with 30% a year earlier. That monthly transaction share and the survey’s July-to-June figures cover different periods and buyer measures, so they are not a direct comparison.

“The housing market remains sharply divided between homeowners with equity and first-time buyers trying to break in …,” said Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.