# Bitcoin set for a slower bull market as $10,000 slump would require extreme shock, CryptoQuant CEO says

By Riza Dagoc

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/36786
Published: 2026-10-21T15:20:43.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-21T15:20:43.000Z
Section: Investing

> CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju sees a slower Bitcoin bull market after August capitulation, arguing that a fall to $10,000 would require a catastrophic shock.

Bitcoin has entered a slower bull market after an August capitulation, with growing institutional and long-term ownership expected to temper the sharp swings seen in earlier cycles.

In a Cointelegraph interview on October 21, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju said he believed Bitcoin’s bear market had ended in August. He described the next phase as a gradual advance rather than a parabolic rally.

Ju pointed to positive net demand in both spot and perpetual futures markets since August 20, a trend he said had held for about two months. It was the first sustained period of positive demand across both markets since the October 2025 peak, he said.

He interpreted a surge in Coinbase’s trading dominance alongside a negative Coinbase premium as evidence that ETFs and institutions had sold near the bottom. He viewed that capitulation as a late-stage bear-market development and said Bitcoin’s holder base was maturing.

Ju put Bitcoin’s aggregate cost basis, or realized price, at about $54,000, compared with a market price of roughly $80,000. He said the market-value-to-realized-value ratio, known as MVRV, had stayed above 1 during this cycle, leaving holders in profit on average and limiting forced selling pressure.

He challenged Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone’s $10,000 downside scenario, saying it would leave holders facing an average unrealized loss of about 80%. Such a price would imply an MVRV ratio of roughly 0.2, below historical lows of about 0.5–0.6, he said. Even during the FTX collapse in 2022, Bitcoin bottomed near its realized price, he added.

Ju said a catastrophic event, such as a world war or a major Bitcoin security flaw, could make that outcome possible. It would also require substantial selling by long-term investors who bought around 2019, a scenario he considered highly unlikely based on holder behavior.

He also expected a larger market to produce smaller gains. Institutional participation and Bitcoin’s increased market capitalization made rallies of more than 10 times the cycle low harder to achieve, he said. Even an additional $1 trillion–$2 trillion in inflows might support a rise of only three to five times the low, in his assessment.

Ju said changes in capital flows had prompted him to revise his earlier expectation of a longer bear market. Persistent profit-taking and stagnant realized capitalization had initially suggested continued selling pressure. He changed his view after ETF inflows returned and older large holders began accumulating and taking long positions in perpetual futures.

He attributed Bitcoin’s failure to follow stocks higher this year to its own distribution cycle. Long-standing large holders had sold 1,240,000 Bitcoin to Michael Saylor and ETFs, he said, arguing that this transfer was complete. With more supply held by investors with longer horizons, he expected Bitcoin to behave increasingly like gold.

Ju said Ethereum and Solana had developed their own institutional investment cases. He put bullish analyst consensus at about 75% for Bitcoin, 80% for Ethereum and 85% for Solana. ETFs, corporate treasury holdings, tokenization and stablecoins helped explain analysts’ preference for Ethereum and Solana, he said.

He cautioned that this did not amount to a broad altcoin season. Trading volume in altcoin pairs denominated in Bitcoin had collapsed after 2021, he said, weakening the rotation from Bitcoin that previously supported widespread altcoin rallies. Capital was instead concentrating in a handful of large assets.

Over the longer term, Ju expected Bitcoin to take on more characteristics of money as blockchain and stablecoin financial infrastructure expanded and long-term ownership increased. He said that maturation could bring lower returns in subsequent cycles.