# Goldman Sachs Warns Rising Tanker Costs Could Lift Oil Prices

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/36972
Published: 2026-10-21T19:39:29.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-21T19:39:29.000Z
Section: Investing

> Average global crude freight rates topped $20 per barrel, up from $3 a year earlier, even as Gulf exports recovered.

Higher tanker costs are adding pressure to crude prices even as Gulf exports recover, and Goldman Sachs says persistently expensive freight could put Brent above its current forecast.

In an Oct. 20 commodities note, Goldman Sachs put the average global crude freight rate above $20 per barrel, compared with $3 a year earlier. Rates on Middle Eastern routes topped $35 per barrel. The bank’s warning describes a risk to its outlook, not a revised price target.

A separate measure shows the strain on a specific route: by mid-October, shipping crude from the Middle East Gulf to Asia on a large tanker cost more than $37 per barrel, over five times its prewar level. Charter rates for that route exceeded $1.3 million per day. Those figures describe the Gulf-to-Asia route, while the more than $35 figure covers Middle Eastern routes more broadly.

The costs remain high despite a recovery in exports. Gulf producers shipped 13.9 million barrels of crude per day in September, more than 75% of their prewar level. Disrupted routes and transfers between ships keep tankers occupied longer, reducing the vessels available for other cargoes. Higher prices for delivered Middle Eastern crude left Asian refining margins negative in September.

The shipping bottleneck matters beyond the route itself. The Strait of Hormuz carried an average of 20.9 million barrels per day of crude oil, condensate and petroleum products in the first half of 2025. During the same period, U.S. imports of crude oil and condensate from Persian Gulf countries through the strait averaged 0.4 million barrels per day, about 7% of U.S. crude oil and condensate imports. Higher freight costs can affect oil and fuel prices beyond the routes where they arise.

Goldman Sachs’ published outlook calls for Brent to reach $90 per barrel in December 2026 and average $80 per barrel in 2027. The freight warning points to upside risk around that outlook; it does not set a new price target.