# Bitcoin’s 35% Drawdown Is Shallower Than Three Earlier Cycles

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/38506
Published: 2026-10-23T00:17:38.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-23T00:17:38.000Z
Section: Investing

> By Oct. 22, 2026, Bitcoin was 381 days past its Oct. 6, 2025, record; three prior cycles had losses of 72% to 80% at the same point.

Bitcoin’s decline from its October 2025 record was shallower than losses seen after three earlier peaks at the same point, even as peak timing stayed close to past post-halving intervals.

The record above $126,000 came on Oct. 6, 2025. By Oct. 22, 2026, 381 days later, Bitcoin was roughly 35% below that high. At the same elapsed point after peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin had fallen about 72%, 80% and 76%, respectively. These figures compare each decline from its peak, not the cycle’s eventual bottom.

Peak timing produced a tighter range. Using UTC calendar dates, the Oct. 6, 2025, high came 534 days after the 2024 halving. Highs after the 2016 and 2020 halvings came 526 and 548 days after those events, respectively.

The April 2024 halving occurred at 8:09 p.m. ET on April 19 (12:09 a.m. UTC on April 20) and cut the reward miners receive for each block from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved U.S. spot Bitcoin investment products in January 2024; Bitcoin set a record in March, before the halving. Those dates establish the sequence of events but do not show what drove the March record.

The smaller decline at day 381 does not mean the current downturn has ended. At its 2026 low, Bitcoin had fallen about 54% from the October peak. Earlier cycles eventually reached declines of roughly 78% to 87%, with losses growing beyond their day-381 levels.

The comparison cannot establish whether Bitcoin’s 2026 low will hold or whether the halving has stopped affecting its price. It shows how the current decline compared with three earlier cycles at one point in time; it does not determine what happens next.