# Polymarket Puts 3% Odds on Bitcoin Reaching $130,000 in 2026 By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/38684 Published: 2026-10-23T04:43:37.000Z Updated: 2026-10-23T04:43:37.000Z Section: Investing > A separate Deribit options estimate put the chance of Bitcoin touching $100,000 by year-end at 20% to 25%; the markets track different thresholds. Polymarket pricing put a 3% chance on Bitcoin (BTC) reaching $130,000 or higher by the end of 2026, while a separate Deribit options estimate put the odds of touching $100,000 at 20% to 25%. The figures cover different price targets and are not directly comparable. The Polymarket reading was dated Oct. 22. Its contract tracks the $130,000 threshold; it does not measure the odds of Bitcoin setting any new record. The Deribit estimate concerns a $100,000 touch by year-end. Kalshi’s [Sept. 29 contract put a 38% chance on Bitcoin crossing $100,000 again](), a different venue and contract from Polymarket’s $130,000 target. ## Links in this article - [Sept. 29 contract put a 38% chance on Bitcoin crossing $100,000 again](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/25291)