# Lula’s Runoff Win Prompts Debate Over Prediction Market Odds

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/40941
Published: 2026-10-26T10:55:20.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-26T10:55:20.000Z
Section: Investing

> Kalshi odds swung during the vote count, while Polymarket settled its Brazil election contract in Lula’s favor.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s runoff win has traders debating how to read prediction market odds after Flávio Bolsonaro was favored earlier in the day, despite losing the vote.

Polymarket and Kalshi priced Bolsonaro at about 80% earlier Sunday. On Kalshi, his odds stayed above 80% for two days before shifting during the count: Lula’s implied chance rose from 20% to 70%, while Bolsonaro’s fell to 31%.

Lula received 51.8% of valid votes, while Bolsonaro received 48.2%. The win secured Lula a fourth term. Polymarket resolved its Brazil election contract in Lula’s favor; the market drew more than $249 million in total volume.

Traders offered different interpretations of the early odds. Joe Weisenthal characterized the result as a potential major forecasting miss. Harry Crane noted that an outcome priced at 4-to-1 can still happen, while Nic Carter raised the possibility of ordinary variance in an event given a 20% chance.