# Bitcoin Fell Below Its 200-Day Average After 25 of 36 Upward Crosses By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/41105 Published: 2026-10-26T15:22:07.000Z Updated: 2026-10-26T15:22:07.000Z Section: Investing > A separate holding rule turned $1 into about $217 over the study period, but lagged continuous holding in most full years from 2019 through 2025. Bitcoin (BTC) fell back below its 200-day moving average within 30 days after 25 of 36 upward crosses from 2014 through October 2026. A separate holding rule produced a higher ending value and smaller modeled decline than continuous holding over the full study period. A move back under the average did not necessarily mean an investor would have lost money. Seven of the 25 crossings that reversed still ended the month with Bitcoin priced above its level a month earlier. The test’s 30-day count asks whether price stayed above the moving average; a return calculation asks whether price ended above its starting point. Those measures can give different answers. The crossing alone also showed limited results against all days in the same period. Four weeks after a cross, the median gain was 0.7%, compared with 1.8% across all days in the period. At 20 weeks, the median figures were 3.5% after a cross and 9.5% across all days in the period. From week nine through week 20, the crossing comparison used 35 signals because the August 2026 cross did not have enough follow-up time. Across the 20 weekly measurement points, crosses produced the higher median return seven times. ### What the test counted The 200-day moving average is a rolling average of Bitcoin’s price over 200 days. The test marked an upward cross when the day’s average price reached or exceeded the line after being below it the previous day. It then measured returns from the following day, rather than from the crossing day itself. That setup differs from a golden cross, which occurs when a shorter-term moving average moves above a longer-term average. Here, the comparison was between Bitcoin’s price and its own 200-day average. It also differs from an [earlier 30-day test]() that required Bitcoin to remain above the line for 30 consecutive days. The two tests therefore measure different conditions: the first move above the line in this backtest, and a sustained period above it in the earlier one. The return figures describe historical observations, not a guaranteed result from buying at a particular price. The calculation used daily average prices and measured performance after the next day’s price. The study period for the crossing test began in January 2014 and ran through October 2026; the holding-rule comparison began in mid-2014 and ended at the Oct. 22, 2026, cutoff. ### The holding rule had a different result A hypothetical investor who held Bitcoin while it was above the 200-day average and moved to cash when it was below would have turned $1 into about $217 from mid-2014 through Oct. 22, 2026. Continuous holding would have turned $1 into about $131 over the same period. The rule’s modeled worst decline was 65%, compared with 83% for continuous holding. The backtest included a 0.1% cost for each switch between Bitcoin and cash. It also relied on daily average prices, which do not establish the prices an investor could have received in actual trades. The results are therefore a comparison of modeled approaches under the test’s assumptions, rather than a record of executable trades. The rule’s longer-term result also came with stretches of underperformance. It returned less than continuous holding in every full year from 2019 through 2025 except 2022. The total ending values and worst declines cover the full period, while the annual comparison shows that the advantage did not appear in most of those individual years. The crossing and holding-rule tests answer separate questions. The first measures what happened after price moved above the line; the second switches between Bitcoin and cash based on whether price was above or below it. The stronger full-period result for the second method does not show that buying at the moment of a cross would have produced the same outcome. ### Results varied by halving-cycle period The crossing record also differed depending on the 365-day period after a Bitcoin halving. In the second such period, 16 of 18 upward crosses were followed by a move below the average within 30 days. In the third period, all five crosses remained above the line for at least 30 days. That split involves a small number of observations. The analysis covers only three complete halving cycles and does not separate the effect of cycle timing from the effect of the crossing itself. Two of the five crosses in the group with the stronger 30-day record occurred in 2015, further limiting what can be concluded from that set. At the Oct. 22, 2026, cutoff, the August 2026 cross had stayed above the average for 30 days, but its longer-term outcome was still open. The backtest’s results show how the line behaved in the measured periods; they do not establish what a later cross will mean. ## Links in this article - [earlier 30-day test](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/36399)