# Polymarket Odds of Bitcoin Hitting $82,500 in October Fall to 36% By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/41713 Published: 2026-10-27T12:01:45.000Z Updated: 2026-10-27T12:01:45.000Z Section: Investing > The contract’s probability was down 20% over 24 hours and is based on Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle highs through Oct. 31. The probability that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $82,500 before October ends stood at 36% on Polymarket’s contract at 7:53 a.m. ET (11:53 UTC) Tuesday, down 20% over the prior 24 hours. The contract tracks whether BTC reaches the threshold at any point during October, rather than where it closes the month. Its 36% reading refers to that specific price-touch outcome. The contract resolves Yes if a Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle has a high of at least $82,500 during the measurement window. That window began at midnight ET Oct. 1 and ends at 11:59 p.m. ET Oct. 31. A qualifying candle triggers an immediate Yes resolution; otherwise, the contract resolves No when the window ends. The settlement rule excludes price readings from other exchanges and trading pairs. Other [October Bitcoin price-threshold markets]() have tracked different levels. ## Links in this article - [October Bitcoin price-threshold markets](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/31567)