# Bitcoin rebound meets subdued sentiment, pointing to an early ‘disbelief rally’

By Riza Dagoc

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/41941
Published: 2026-10-27T18:40:35.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-27T18:40:35.000Z
Section: Investing

> Michael Sullivan says weak conviction despite Bitcoin’s recovery resembles an early disbelief rally. His sentiment research tracks excitement, conviction and desire.

Bitcoin’s price recovery has yet to restore investor enthusiasm, a combination that may signal the early stages of a bull market. Excitement that quickly fades after rallies could reflect lingering skepticism as the market emerges from a downturn.

In an October 27 interview with Bitcoin Magazine, Michael Sullivan, author of Bitcoin Sentiment Weekly, said Bitcoin’s price had held up despite macroeconomic uncertainty. Apathy, fear and anger persisted alongside improving prices, he said, describing that combination as characteristic of an early “disbelief rally.”

Sullivan said sentiment had deteriorated sharply around the lows in late June and early July, as speculative capital and attention shifted toward AI stocks. Bitcoin subsequently climbed despite broader concerns, but enthusiasm remained weak. He interpreted that divergence as support for his assessment of an early bull market.

His historical comparisons put current sentiment closer to 2015 than to more recent downturns. Measures of excitement, conviction and desire were more depressed than during the 2022 bear market, he said. His analysis associated similarly weak interest with strong returns over subsequent years, although he said near-term price movements were difficult to predict.

Sullivan applied the same interpretation to several sharp advances from the $58,000 bottom range. The key, he said, was how quickly excitement disappeared afterward. Investors were returning to boredom and expressing less conviction after price gains, suggesting they remained unconvinced that the recovery would last.

He said he had developed a composite sentiment measure combining those emotions. In his research, excitement, conviction and desire had stronger historical relationships with market peaks and troughs than fear and greed. Excitement could rise early when Bitcoin broke through all-time highs, while conviction and demand for further gains became more prominent later in bull markets. The combined measure had remained historically depressed since late June, he said.

Sullivan also discussed the gap between feeling confident about a purchase and its subsequent performance. His early analysis found that purchases made during periods of elevated excitement and conviction substantially underperformed dollar-cost averaging over time. He described regular purchases as a way to reduce the influence of emotion on investment decisions.

On market narratives, Sullivan pointed to growing discussion of the connection between Bitcoin and AI. AI agents’ use of blockchain-based financial tools gave that connection substance, he said. He also argued that AI’s deflationary effects and shifts in equity valuations could strengthen Bitcoin’s appeal.

Integration with traditional finance was another reason for his constructive assessment. Sullivan said Bitcoin’s success did not depend on the existing financial system deteriorating and that it could serve different roles across different economic environments. He viewed greater integration as compatible with its use by people seeking financial autonomy and privacy.