# Bitcoin Model Shows Reclaiming $126,198 Does Not Ensure a Year-End Close By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/42095 Published: 2026-10-27T22:56:05.000Z Updated: 2026-10-27T22:56:05.000Z Section: Investing > In 100,000 simulated paths, 50.4% closed above the level at least once within a year, while 34.8% ended the period above it. A one-year Bitcoin (BTC) simulation found that closing above $126,198.07 at least once was more common than ending the year above the same level. The results separate a temporary move past the threshold from the price at the end of the modeled period. Of 100,000 simulated paths, 50.4% recorded at least one daily close above the threshold within 365 days. By the end of the year, 34.8% were above it. The difference is 15.6 percentage points, representing paths that crossed the level but finished below it. The model generated paths by resampling seven-day blocks from 1,096 daily log returns covering Oct. 26, 2023, through Oct. 26, 2026. It began at $79,949.93, the reference close on Oct. 26, 2026, at 8 p.m. ET (Oct. 27 at 00:00 UTC). The $126,198.07 threshold was the prior high used for the test. The crossing measure tracks daily closes, not trades that briefly move above the price during a day. That makes the result a test of closing values over time. A path counted as a crossing only when its daily close exceeded the threshold. The crossing rate also does not show how many paths stayed above the line after first passing it. Across all paths, 42.1% crossed above $126,198.07 and later recorded at least one daily close below it. Some of those paths subsequently recovered, which helps explain why fewer paths crossed and ended the year below the level. For paths that cleared the level within 365 days, the first daily close above it came after a median of 189 days. Before that close, the median largest decline from a path’s running peak was 18.9%; the 90th-percentile decline was 30.7%. A running peak is the highest value reached up to that point in a path, so these drawdowns measure losses from a local high rather than from the model’s starting value. A separate calculation measured declines from the starting value. Among paths that eventually crossed the threshold, 11.4% first fell at least 20% below their starting price, and 2.3% fell at least 30%. These figures describe the route taken by successful crossing paths, not the share of all simulated paths that had those declines. The results shifted across other scenarios in the analysis. Those tests put the share crossing above the threshold within one year between 17.8% and 52.3%. The share ending above it ranged from 9.3% to 35.4%. The ranges show that the crossing and year-end figures depend on the scenario assumptions; they are model outputs, not calibrated odds of Bitcoin’s future price. A separate historical sample offers context for the potential path after a reclaim. In seven selected recoveries that followed drawdowns of at least 30%, four fell below the previous daily closing record within 30 days of reclaiming it. All seven had a peak-to-trough decline of at least 20% within 90 days after the first reclaim. The episodes were selected after they were complete and were not independent cycles, so they describe those cases rather than establishing a future probability. The analysis addresses a different setup from [an earlier 10,000-path Bitcoin simulation by Willy Woo](). Its results focus on whether daily closes clear a specific prior high and where paths end after one year. A crossing percentage and a terminal-price result answer separate questions, even when they come from the same set of simulated paths. ## Links in this article - [an earlier 10,000-path Bitcoin simulation by Willy Woo](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/41548)