# Societe Generale Sets 5.5% Treasury Yield as a Risk Threshold By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/43880 Published: 2026-10-29T20:51:16.000Z Updated: 2026-10-29T20:51:16.000Z Section: Investing > The bank cites credit spreads below their long-term average and a VIX reading under 20 as signs systemic risk remains contained. It expects rates to peak at 4.5%. Societe Generale sees a 5.5% yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury as a threshold above which bond-market stress could threaten the economic cycle and trigger a systemic crash in risk assets. The bank places a potential credit event near that level, where it says yields could also break the cycle. Its view is that Treasury-market swings below the threshold are unlikely to cause a systemic crash in risk assets. Credit spreads remain below their long-term average, while the VIX is under 20. Societe Generale cites those measures as signs that systemic risk remains contained. The bank expects rates to peak at 4.5%. It points to supply-driven inflation, fiscal constraints and a more divided economy as factors that limit central banks' ability to tighten policy. The assessment also relates to [earlier coverage of the gap between Treasury volatility and stock and crypto volatility](). ## Links in this article - [earlier coverage of the gap between Treasury volatility and stock and crypto volatility](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/27026)