# Survey Finds Nearly Half of Investors Concerned About Midterm Market Impact

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/44056
Published: 2026-10-30T00:07:48.000Z
Updated: 2026-10-30T00:07:48.000Z
Section: Investing

> The S&P 500 posted positive six-month price returns after all 13 midterms since 1974, while midterm years had higher median volatility than other years.

Nearly half of respondents to a quarterly survey of U.S. investors were concerned that the 2026 midterm elections could affect the stock market, while the S&P 500 rose in every six-month period after the 13 midterms since 1974.

The online survey, released Oct. 26, included 953 investors who managed their investments themselves, delegated management or used a mix of both. Forty-eight percent expressed concern about a possible market impact. The survey reported a margin of error of 3.20 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

In the same survey, 42% described themselves as bearish, up four percentage points from the previous quarter, and 54% cited inflation as a concern. The survey ran from Oct. 1 to 23.

A separate survey of 2,029 U.S. investors ages 18 and older with at least $10,000 in investable assets found that 56% felt more anxious because of the elections. Seventy-five percent thought the outcome could meaningfully affect their long-term financial plans. Conducted from Aug. 24 to Sept. 11, the survey reported a margin of error of three percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

The 48% finding concerns a possible stock market effect; the 56% figure measures election-related anxiety. The surveys also differed in timing, sample size and eligibility, so they address separate questions.

In the 13 midterm cycles since 1974, the S&P 500 gained in 11 of the following three-month periods, averaging a 5.7% price return. Over six months, the index recorded positive returns in all 13 periods, with an average price return of 12.4%. These returns exclude dividends and use data through Aug. 14, 2026.

Market volatility was also higher in midterm years from 1970 through 2025. Median annualized volatility was nearly 16%, compared with 13% in other years. The calculation uses daily S&P 500 returns for each month and annualizes the monthly standard deviation.

The return and volatility figures describe different periods and measures. They do not show that elections caused market moves or establish what will happen after the next vote. The next regularly scheduled federal general election is Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026.