# ANZ Raises Dec. 31 Brent Forecast to $105 on Persistent Constraints By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/44554 Published: 2026-10-30T10:51:34.000Z Updated: 2026-10-30T10:51:34.000Z Section: Investing > The $10 increase assumes Middle Eastern export, shipping and refined-product constraints last through year-end. ANZ strategists said the forecast does not depend on a fresh geopolitical shock. ANZ raised its Brent crude forecast for Dec. 31, 2026, to $105 a barrel from $95, projecting that constraints on Middle Eastern exports, shipping and refined-product markets will persist through year-end. ANZ’s strategists said the projection rests on existing limits lasting through December. “The forecast does not require another geopolitical shock,” they wrote. A December Brent forecast was $90 a barrel, up from $85. The $90 figure covers December, while ANZ specified a price for Dec. 31. The two forecasts therefore do not refer to the same observation period. Brent was forecast to average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. Inputs were finalized Oct. 1, and the quarterly average differs from ANZ’s year-end estimate. Supply and inventory figures show a partial recovery in Gulf exports alongside depleted global stocks. Gulf crude exports rose by 4.4 million barrels per day from August to 13.9 million in September, more than 75% of prewar levels. At the end of September, global observed oil inventories were 509 million barrels below their end-of-February level. On-land stocks were at their lowest since at least 2016. Global oil demand was projected to fall by an average of 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026, with the market in deficit through year-end. Those figures describe the wider supply and demand outlook; ANZ’s stated forecast assumptions concern Middle Eastern exports, shipping and refined-product markets. Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs Research’s co-head of global commodities research and head of oil research, estimated in an interview recorded Oct. 22 that Brent carried a risk premium of about $27 a barrel at the time. “But for the risk premium to come off quickly, you would probably need to see a diplomatic solution that market participants see as sustainable,” he said. TokenPost previously covered broader oil-market conditions in its [Oct. 26 oil-market outlook](). ## Links in this article - [Oct. 26 oil-market outlook](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/40851)