# Bitcoin Backtest Estimates 47% of 10x Longs Liquidated Despite Higher 180-Day Close

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/45807
Published: 2026-11-01T10:36:45.000Z
Updated: 2026-11-01T10:36:45.000Z
Section: Investing

> The analysis also simulated three hypothetical $1,000 Bitcoin positions on Oct. 10, 2025, including a 10x perpetual long and a long paired with a put.

An Oct. 22 Bitcoin backtest estimated that 47% of hypothetical 10x perpetual longs would have been liquidated during 180-day periods in which Bitcoin ultimately closed above its starting price.

Saurabh Deshpande, the report’s author, used daily Bitcoin (BTC) closing prices from January 2018 through October 2026. For 60-day periods in which Bitcoin closed above its starting price, the analysis estimated an 18% liquidation rate for a 10x perpetual long. The estimate rose to 29% for 90-day periods and 47% for 180-day periods in which Bitcoin closed above its starting price. Those percentages apply only to periods in which Bitcoin ended above its starting price.

A separate simulation modeled three hypothetical $1,000 Bitcoin positions opened at 8 a.m. ET (12:00 UTC) Oct. 10, 2025: a 10x perpetual long, a 30-day call option and a 10x long paired with a seven-day put. The simulation showed the perpetual position being liquidated at 5:14 p.m. ET (21:14 UTC). The call fell to $181, then recovered above $800 within an hour. The put cost $52.

The comparison centers on how the positions respond to adverse price moves. A fully paid option buyer can lose the premium paid for the contract, while an adverse move can liquidate a leveraged perpetual position. Deshpande’s broader argument is that perpetual markets give option sellers a place to adjust their hedges. “A perp lets you choose how far the price can move against you. It never lets you choose how long you are allowed to be wrong. An option does,” Deshpande wrote.

The analysis also estimated on-chain options notional at about $5 billion in September 2026, with premiums of $85 million and peak open interest near $2.5 billion. Those figures describe market activity and open contracts, while the backtest estimates hypothetical liquidation risk.