# S&P 500 Rose in 95% of 12-Month Periods After Midterms Since 1938 By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/46078 Published: 2026-11-02T02:28:14.000Z Updated: 2026-11-02T02:28:14.000Z Section: Investing > The average return in the year after midterms was about 14%, compared with about 5% during the midterm election year. The S&P 500 rose in 95% of the 12-month periods after U.S. midterm elections since 1938, with an average return of about 14%, ahead of Tuesday's vote. The average return during the second year of a presidential term, which is the midterm election year, was about 5%. The figures compare two different periods: the midterm year and the 12 months after the election. The historical pattern did not depend on which party won. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The figures add another view to TokenPost's earlier coverage of [S&P 500 returns across 21 midterm election cycles](). The next U.S. midterm election is Tuesday, Nov. 3. ## Links in this article - [S&P 500 returns across 21 midterm election cycles](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/41709)