# Treasury Cuts Estimate to $618 Billion; Bitcoin (BTC) Liquidity Link Remains Conditional By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/47038 Published: 2026-11-02T23:29:10.000Z Updated: 2026-11-02T23:29:10.000Z Section: Investing > The Treasury’s $1.015632 trillion balance on Oct. 28 was $165.632 billion above its year-end cash assumption, while weekly average bank reserves declined. The Treasury lowered its fourth-quarter privately held net marketable borrowing estimate to $618 billion and retained an $850 billion year-end cash assumption, adding context to the Bitcoin (BTC) liquidity debate. The Nov. 2 estimate is $10 billion below the August forecast. Treasury said it would have been $24 billion above the prior estimate without the higher-than-assumed starting cash balance for the quarter. For July through September, actual privately held net marketable borrowing was $742 billion, with $984 billion in cash at quarter-end; the August estimate had been $739 billion in borrowing and $950 billion in cash. On Oct. 28, the account held $1.015632 trillion, $165.632 billion above the year-end assumption. Treasury’s August projection allowed for a late-October peak of $1.05 trillion, plus or minus $50 billion; the Oct. 28 balance was within that range but does not establish the peak. The $165.632 billion gap compares a one-day reading with a year-end assumption, not a Treasury projection of cash available to banks or the amount of a future reserve increase. For the week ended Oct. 28, average bank reserves fell $68.837 billion to $2.893770 trillion. Over the same comparison, the Treasury General Account’s weekly average rose $47.725 billion to $999.727 billion. These weekly measures moved in opposite directions, but the comparison does not establish that the rise in the Treasury account caused the reserve decline. Treasury payments from its Federal Reserve account move funds to depository institutions and raise reserves, all else equal. Tax receipts and private purchases of Treasury debt move funds into the account and reduce reserves. Treasury and Federal Reserve figures do not establish that a future cash decline would increase Bitcoin buying. Each dollar of coupon Treasury issuance was associated with about 21 cents in added primary-dealer balance sheets on issuance dates. The data sample covered January 2016 through June 2025. A [prior review of bank reserves and Bitcoin liquidity]() used Sept. 30 data. Treasury will publish additional quarterly refunding details Wednesday, Nov. 4, at 8:30 a.m. ET. ## Links in this article - [prior review of bank reserves and Bitcoin liquidity](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/26414)