# Midterm Odds Show No Significant Link to Major Crypto Asset Performance

By Enna Lee

Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/47535
Published: 2026-11-03T09:54:58.000Z
Updated: 2026-11-03T09:54:58.000Z
Section: Investing

> Survey respondents’ median year-end Bitcoin forecasts range from $76,450 to $90,800 across three hypothetical outcomes for control of Congress.

A Nov. 2 analysis found no statistically significant relationship between U.S. midterm election odds and the performance of major crypto assets so far, despite sharply different year-end forecasts for Bitcoin (BTC) under possible election outcomes.

Survey respondents placed their median year-end Bitcoin forecast at $90,800 if Republicans retain both chambers of Congress. The median was $76,450 if Democrats take both chambers and $84,100 if the parties split control. Those figures describe hypothetical outcomes, not prices observed in the market or the size of a move caused by the election.

The gap between the survey medians shows how respondents answered different political scenarios. It does not establish how much Bitcoin would gain or lose under any result. The Nov. 2 analysis tested whether election odds had moved in a statistically significant relationship with the performance of major crypto assets and found none so far. That finding does not establish that the vote will have no market effect.

Bitcoin’s record after past midterms also depends on the period measured. It gained 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3% over the 12 months after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 elections, respectively. Yet it fell 45.5% in the first month after the 2018 vote. Those differing windows offer limited evidence that the election cycle alone determines Bitcoin’s direction.

Tighter financial conditions, inflation and risks tied to the artificial intelligence trade remain part of Bitcoin’s market outlook. The survey forecasts reflect respondents’ expectations for year-end prices under each political outcome; they do not account for a confirmed price response to the vote.

The policy stakes are more direct. The CLARITY Act, a digital asset market structure bill, remains stalled in the Senate after a failed procedural vote. Control of Congress can affect the bill’s path, but an election result alone cannot change federal crypto market rules. Lawmakers would still have to act on the legislation.

Voters choose the next Congress on Nov. 3. The results will determine which party controls each chamber for the next two years.