# Kalshi Markets Put Democrats at 93% to Win House, 73% for Senate By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/48214 Published: 2026-11-04T04:15:45.000Z Updated: 2026-11-04T04:15:45.000Z Section: Investing > Midterm contracts exceeded $1.4 billion in volume on Nov. 3. A Texas Senate market gave James Talarico a 71% chance against Ken Paxton. Kalshi’s U.S. midterm markets put Democrats’ chance of controlling the House at 93% and the Senate at 73% on Nov. 3, as election-related contracts passed $1.4 billion in trading volume. The largest contract asked which party would control Congress and drew $251 million in volume. A separate House-control contract exceeded $181 million. Another market covered all four possible combinations of party control in the House and Senate, with volume above $112 million. Activity also reached state and local races. The Los Angeles mayoral market approached $110 million in volume. In Texas, Senate contracts neared $100 million, with Democrat James Talarico at 71% to defeat Republican Ken Paxton. The state’s governor market drew $21 million, while incumbent Republican Greg Abbott had a 65% chance of winning. Trading volume counts the contracts at their $1 settlement value, regardless of what traders paid to buy them. It therefore does not represent the cash traders spent. [An earlier TokenPost explanation of Kalshi’s volume calculation]() covers the distinction. Market probabilities are forecasts, not results. In Wisconsin’s August Democratic gubernatorial primary, traders on Kalshi and Polymarket put Francesca Hong near 95% to win. David Crowley won by less than half a percentage point. ## Links in this article - [An earlier TokenPost explanation of Kalshi’s volume calculation](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/46214)