# Weekend Token Prices Trailed an Always-Up Forecast by 1 Point By Enna Lee Canonical URL: https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/48902 Published: 2026-11-05T00:35:16.000Z Updated: 2026-11-05T00:35:16.000Z Section: Investing > Across 533 qualifying openings, token prices called direction correctly 54% of the time, versus 55% for a forecast that every stock would rise. Weekend prices for tokenized stocks failed to improve forecasts of the next U.S. market opening in a test across 17 weekends, finishing just below a forecast that every stock would rise. The test covered 121 stocks and 791 opening observations. Of those, 533 openings moved at least 0.5% from the previous Friday’s close and entered the directional comparison. Token prices correctly called direction for 286, or 54%. An always-up forecast was right 291 times, or 55%. With rising and falling openings weighted equally, token prices recorded 53% balanced accuracy, a measure that averages the hit rate for each direction. The reported 95% range was 44% to 62%; an always-up forecast scores 50% on that measure. “The Sunday price showed no clear edge,” Gaurav Agarwal wrote. The test used Sunday prices captured just before 6 p.m. ET, when U.S. stock-index futures reopen. Across all 791 observations, using token moves to estimate opening changes produced a 1.2% median error. A forecast that stocks would remain at Friday’s close had a lower 0.9% median error. An update added four weekends to an earlier 13-weekend test. The original weekends retained 56% directional accuracy. In the four added weekends, tokens scored 48%, compared with 63% for an always-up forecast. A separate sensitivity check used prices just before 8 p.m. ET and recorded 59% balanced accuracy across 220 openings, with a reported 95% range of 53% to 65%. It also raised the weekend-volume threshold to $1 million and changed the movement filter. Futures had reopened by then, and the check did not compare token prices with futures, so it does not show whether tokens added information beyond them. Tokenized stocks are blockchain tokens that track company shares and can trade on decentralized exchanges while traditional markets are closed. The results extend TokenPost’s earlier coverage of [weekend price discovery]() with a test of whether weekend quotes anticipated the next stock opening. Nasdaq’s SEC-approved 23/5 schedule is expected to begin Dec. 6, pending readiness at the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) and the securities information processor (SIP). It would add a 9 p.m.-to-4 a.m. ET session, extending trading from Sunday evening through Friday evening with a daily 8-9 p.m. ET pause. ## Links in this article - [weekend price discovery](https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/35703)